Climate cycles are driving wars

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News: In the first study of its kind, researchers have linked a natural global climate cycle to periodic increases in warfare. The arrival of El Niño, which every three to seven years boosts temperatures and cuts rainfall, doubles the risk of civil wars across 90 affected tropical countries, and may help account for a fifth of worldwide conflicts during the past half-century, say the authors. The paper, written by an interdisciplinary team at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, appears in the current issue of the leading scientific journal Nature.



In recent years, historians and climatologists have built evidence that past societies suffered and fell due in connection with heat or droughts that damaged agriculture and shook governments. This is the first study to make the case for such destabilization in the present day, using statistics to link global weather observations and well-documented outbreaks of violence. The study does not blame specific wars on El Niño, nor does it directly address the issue of long-term climate change. However, it raises potent questions, as many scientists think natural weather cycles will become more extreme with warming climate, and some suggest ongoing chaos in places like Somalia are already being stoked by warming climate.



...The scientists tracked ENSO from 1950 to 2004 and correlated it with onsets of civil conflicts that killed more than 25 people in a given year. The data included 175 countries and 234 conflicts, over half of which each caused more than 1,000 battle-related deaths. For nations whose weather is controlled by ENSO, they found that during La Niña, the chance of civil war breaking out was about 3 percent; during El Niño, the chance doubled, to 6 percent. Countries not affected by the cycle remained at 2 percent no matter what. Overall, the team calculated that El Niño may have played a role in 21 percent of civil wars worldwide—and nearly 30 percent in those countries affected by El Niño.



...The authors say they do not know exactly why climate feeds conflict. “But if you have social inequality, people are poor, and there are underlying tensions, it seems possible that climate can deliver the knockout punch,” said Hsiang. When crops fail, people may take up a gun simply to make a living, he said. Kyle C. Meng, a sustainable-development Ph.D. candidate and the study’s other author, pointed out that social scientists have shown that individuals often become more aggressive when temperatures rise, but he said that whether that applies to whole societies is only speculative....



Polish soldiers on maneuvers in 2008, Łukasz Golowanow & Maciek Hypś, Konflikty.pl, Wikimedia Commons

Hurricane Irene hits the Caribbean

Al-Jazeera.net: The first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season has developed in the Caribbean. Irene, the ninth storm of the season, developed over the Leeward Islands of Guadeloupe and Dominica and strengthened as it barrelled west towards Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.



As the storm crossed Puerto Rico, the winds topped 120kph, and Tropical Storm Irene was reclassified as Hurricane Irene; the Caribbean Islands began to prepare for the worst. Before making landfall in Puerto Rico, the authorities identified the storm as potentially life-threatening. "We have to take this seriously," the Puerto Rico governor, Luis Fortuno, warned.



The ban on Sunday morning shopping was lifted so residents could stock-pile canned food and bottled water, and would not need to venture out in the storm. Emergency shelters were opened and people in flood zones were urged to use them. People in secure houses were ordered to stay inside and stay off the roads until the storm had passed.



The hurricane flooded streets and caused rivers to overflow their banks, as it raged over the island. Winds brought down trees and left more than a million Puerto Ricans without power, but there were no immediate reports of any deaths. Schools and government offices will now remain closed on Monday, whilst the clear-up operation is underway.



After hitting Puerto Rico, the hurricane is now heading towards Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A hurricane warning has already been issued for the north coast of the Dominican Republic and although the storm is only a category one hurricane at the moment, there are concerns that it will strengthen in the next few days.



Hurricane Irene is a slow-moving storm, moving northwest at only 19 kph, which is not good news. The longer the storm is over an area, the more rain and damage it will cause. The hurricane is expected to swamp Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands with 25cm of rain, and some spots could see up to 50cm. This will cause life-threatening flash-flooding and mudslides….



Tropical Storm Irene (now officially a hurricane) gaining strength on August 21, 2011. From NASA

Time to begin anticipating and adapting to climate change

PhysOrg: Despite the uncertainties surrounding climate change, it is time to start developing effective strategies that will keep the nation's transportation systems and other critical infrastructure running in the face of the adverse impacts that seem increasingly likely to occur.



This consensus emerged from a two-day leadership summit that brought together major stakeholders from the $1 trillion-plus freight transportation sector with climate change researchers to discuss the issue for the first time. The meeting was held in June at Vanderbilt University and was sponsored by the Vanderbilt Center for Transportation Research (VECTOR), Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment (VIEE) and the University of Memphis' Intermodal Freight Transportation Institute.



"It is increasingly clear that climate change will have potentially large impacts on the nation's highways, railroads, waterways, airports and pipelines. In all likelihood, these impacts will increase in the future, so we have to learn how to plan ahead," said George Hornberger, director of VIEE and distinguished professor of civil and environmental engineering.



According to the University Center for Atmospheric Research, more than 75 percent of natural disasters are triggered directly or indirectly by weather and climate. In the U.S., more than a quarter of our gross national product (+$2 trillion) is sensitive to weather and climate events, which affect our health, safety, economy, environment, transportation systems and national security. Each year, the U.S. sustains billions of dollars in weather-related damages caused by hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, flooding, heavy snows and drought. The threats associated with extreme weather and climate change are substantial and adapting to climate change will be crucial to economic and social stability, for example by making future water, food and energy supplies reliable and sustainable. Contributing to these costs is the problem of the nation's aging infrastructure, which needs $2.2 trillion in improvements to meet today's demands, according to the 2009 National Infrastructure Report Card by the American Society of Civil Engineers….



A clear day on the Autobahn, shot by Danny Steaven, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution 1.0 Generic license

Harvey bears down on Belize

Terra Daily via AFP: Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall on Belize on Saturday, but forecasters said it was expected to fizzle out after dumping heavy rains over Central America. The eye of the storm made landfall near Dangriga and weakened as it moved farther inland.



It was moving westward at a speed of 21 kilometers (13 miles) per hour, with maximum sustained winds near 80 kilometers per hour, the Miami-based US National Hurricane Center said in its 2100 GMT advisory. Located about 70 kilometers from Belize City, the storm was forecast to continue moving inland over Belize before hovering over northern Guatemala later Saturday.



Harvey was expected to produce total rain accumulations of eight to 15 centimeters (three to six inches) across Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, with up to 25 centimeters in isolated areas.



"These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially over higher terrain," the NHC said. In Belize and Guatemala, authorities warned people about the risks of heavy rains and a tropical wave along the Caribbean coast, but there were no reports of damage or casualties. "The phenomenon did not cause loss of life or infrastructure damage," said a top emergency services official, Juan Jose Reyes….



Tropical Storm Harvey just north of Honduras on August 19, 2011

Dust storms in Arizona

Carly M. Price, Morgan Sailor and Angela Piazza in the Arizona Republic: A massive wall of dust struck the Valley on Thursday night, but microbursts throughout the area wreaked the most havoc. The scattered microbursts reached winds of up to 60 mph and knocked over trees and power poles that left 1,500 customers across the Valley without power and another 3,100 around Eloy and Casa Grande during the storm's peak.



The Eloy area was one of the earliest and hardest hit by the storm, with 25 to 30 power poles knocked over. Trees falling on power lines also caused power outages. The damaging winds collapsed walls and tore off the roofs of buildings. Shingles from roofs of houses in the San Tan Valley area were also ripped off. The punishing storms caused sporadic outages throughout the area.



Of the 1,500 Valley customers without power, 1,100 of those were in Peoria. As of this morning, only two customers did not have service restored in this area. Although the Eloy and Casa Grande areas were the hardest hit, APS Spokesman Dan Wool expects the remaining customers to be basking in their air-conditioning and drinking ice-cold water by noon.



Currently, 90 customers Valley-wide are sweating the effects of powerless homes, but only 30 of those are storm-related, SRP Spokesman Jeff Lane said. The remaining homes were undergoing routine, scheduled outages. "Crews worked overnight, and as of 7 (this morning), only 15 were without power," Wool said about the Eloy area....



A dust storm blowing into Ahwatukee, Phoenix, Arizona on 22 August 2003.Shot by Junebug172, Wikimedia Commons