Philippine agencies to map dengue outbreaks

GMA News (Philipppines): Can dengue fever outbreaks be predicted? Science officials in the Philippines think so. With the country in the grips of dengue fever, the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) and the state weather bureau have launched a study that will enable health authorities to predict dengue outbreaks in the future.



Science Undersecretary Graciano Yumul Jr. said there might be a correlation between changes in weather, temperature, rainfall, and the location of the dengue fever surges in the country. Yumul said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the government meteorological agency, is currently conducting a review of its past data on weather variations, rainfall amount, and temperature changes.



These data will be cross-checked with information on dengue outbreaks and other infectious diseases that plagued the country in the past years. Yumul said the above-average rainfall that the country is experiencing due to climate change may increase the number of infectious diseases carried by mosquitoes and worms, creatures that thrive in damp climates and dirty environments.



“We have a dengue project. We are looking at dengue and its possible correlation with temperature and precipitation," he said in a phone interview yesterday. With enough information on, “maybe it will be possible to forecast it," he added. Yumul said there was a Pagasa and Department of Health studies in the past that showed the relationship between tropical diseases and weather. The study is being updated and will include information on malaria, another fatal mosquito-borne infectious disease, and parasitic worm illnesses, which affect children and the urban poor population....



A TEM micrograph showing Dengue virus virions (the cluster of dark dots near the center). From the Centers for Disease Control

Hurricane Irene aims at New England, but its exact impact is still uncertain

Martin Finucane in the Boston Globe: The worst-case scenario sounds scary: Hurricane Irene could sweep ashore in New England this weekend, dousing the state with torrential rains, and lashing it with damaging wind gusts, while heavy surf pounds the coasts and water rises in streams.



But it’s still “highly uncertain” exactly where and how hard the storm will hit, NationalWeather Service forecasters said this morning. The key question, as the storm moves up the coast, is whether the storm will track more to the east or to the west, said weather service meteorologist Alan Dunham.



If the center of the storm tracks just east of Nantucket and the Cape, the Cape and islands could see some wind and storm surge and Central and Eastern Massachusetts could see 8 to 10 inches of rain, said Dunham....“A 30-mile difference in track is going to make a huge difference in what people experience,” he said....



This graphic from the National Hurricane Weather Center shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low.

Mandurah's climate change challenge

Andrew O'Connor in ABC News (Australia): It was a grim warning that placed Mandurah on the leading edge of a change that could radically reshape one of the nation's fastest-growing seaside communities. Climate change not coming to Western Australia - it's already here.



The Climate Commission's travelling roadshow, led by former Australian of the Year Tim Flannery, rolled through the South West armed with a new report and a clear message - we must act now. The report, "The Critical Decade", condensed existing research and focused solely on the impact of climate change on Western Australia.



...For coastal communities the most ominous of the report's statements was about rising sea levels which it says "will exacerbate existing vulnerability to flooding and beach erosion." According to Climate Commission member, Professor Lesley Hughes, that rise, which is happening worldwide, is happening relatively quickly.



...With large areas of development in low lying areas, Mandurah is particularly vulnerable to erosion and flooding. One person who is not alarmed is the city's mayor Paddi Creevey whose council has already spent years preparing to weather whatever storms climate change may bring. "There's nothing to panic about, we are very much open for business but we will be well-prepared," she said.



The City of Mandurah has largely sidestepped the controversy and politics of climate change, instead focussing on the practical, local steps it can take to prepare for any contingency. Ms Creevey says that work started in 2007 and has included a range of vulnerability assessments and other measures.



"We've had our staff working in collaboration with universities, CSIRO and other places," she said. "We've done a vulnerability assessment to understand for ourselves where we need to pay attention and we've been working closely with the state and commonwealth departments to really try to make ourselves ready and, importantly, to educate our community for what we will need to face."...



Port Bouvard Bridge over the Dawesville Channel south of Mandurah, Western Australia, shot by Orderinchaos, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Global warming could deliver a jolt to coffee lovers

Josh Rubin in the Toronto Star: Global warming could deliver a jolt to coffee lovers – and not the kind they’ve come to crave first thing in the morning. Up to 60 per cent of the world’s coffee-growing regions will no longer be viable by 2050 thanks to climate change, according to a recent estimate from the Global Coffee Quality Research Initiative.



And that, says Trillium Asset Management researcher Jonas Kron, represents a major financial risk for companies who count on coffee for their profits. Trillium and Calvert Investment Management, Inc. called on U.S. consumer products giant Smucker’s to produce detailed disclosure of climate-related risks as part of its financial statements. “I’m not prone to hyperbole, but climate change is going to be the biggest financial issue for the next generation,” said Kron, adding that Smucker’s got 40 per cent of its revenues and 48 per cent of its earnings from coffee last year.



Calling for that kind of detailed disclosure is one sign among many that concern over global warming has shifted from protesters and activists to the board room. Experts say changing weather patterns will have an effect on everything from the size of ships that can ply the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River to the long-term viability of grain farming on the North American prairies.



Even financial regulators are adding to the concern, acknowledging climate change is a “material risk” for many companies. Last year, both the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian Securities Administrators unveiled new guidelines for how companies should disclose the risks they face from environmental change...



Coffee beans shot by Aaron Logan, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic license