Written by Garikai 'Agenda' Chimuka
As it stands right now, many progressive Zimbabweans will find it misguided to even debate the future of ZANU PF out of the understandable reality that the party belongs to the dustbin of history if Zimbabwe was ever a democratic country. However, to do so is to be naive. Given the reality of how this party can ride roughshod by manipulating elections to its advantage, then by hook or crook this dying monster will be with us in the foreseeable future. In light of the advanced age and the reported failing of the health of its octogenarian life leader, Mugabe, it is important to look at what will happen in this party and its implication for Zimbabwe
Since its formation in 1963, ZANU has been under 3 leaders. The first leader being the inaugural president, the late Ndabaningi Sithole who was disposed off in a tribally inspired Mugabe schemed coup in 1976. During Sithole’s leadership, democracy was promoted in ZANU with leaders openly and in the spirit of comradeship, campaigning against each other at the inaugural congress in 1963 where Sithole emerged victorious with Mugabe coming in as SG. It was because of this openness that even in prison, Cdes like Tekere ousted Sithole from the leadership of ZANU in favour of Mugabe on the basis that he had betrayed the liberation struggle. Therefore, under Sithole, one can conclude that ZANU was a democratic party.
The other phase of ZANU is that from 1965 to 1975 when the external wing of ZANU was under national Chairman Herbert Chitepo. After getting authority to prosecute the armed struggle through the Sikombela declaration, Chitepo established the DARE, which is the equivalent of the politburo. It is important to note that office bearers of the DARE were elected at congress after every 2 years and no position was sacrosanct from contestation in one of the most democratic periods in the life of ZANU. Thus ZANU under Chitepo had elections in 1967, 1969, 1971 and 1973 before his untimely demise in 1975
When Mugabe fully assumed control of ZANU at the Chimoio conference in 1977, he abolished leadership by open elections and people were appointed to the Central committee of the party on the basis of behind the scenes consensus. This is what ZANU calls guided democracy. This was meant to manage the fallout likely to result from elections as the events that led to Chitepo‘s death clearly showed the danger of open contests and elections
Since 1977, there has never been an open contestation for any top position in ZANU. The only time such a contestation nearly happened was in 2004 but the Tsholotsho plot was ruthlessly crushed by Mugabe
Hence given the above, it is now a clear fact that Mugabe is not going to allow the contestation of the party’s leadership position as long as he is still alive. This is not only because of his propensity to be life president at all costs but also because he has never been democratic since he took over ZANU PF in 1977.Therefore to expect such an old dog to learn new tricks like democracy is to expect too much from the tired geriatric
Therefore given this history, people often ask who will succeed Mugabe and when?
Many people look at Mugabe’s age and feel that this term must be his last and that he must now be working in order to ensure that he manages a peaceful transition within ZANU PF. However, this will not happen because the man has no intention to quit and no one can challenge him in ZANU PF given that the consequences are obvious.Therefore people looking to the future of ZANU PF must look at ZANU pF constitution primarily from the time of Mugabe’s departure
In my view, Mugabe will only leave ZANU PF via death. There are various likely outcomes in the event of his demise. But given that Mugabe’s health is a guarded secret, then if he eventually goes several interesting outcomes are possible
Constitutionally, in the event of Mugabe’s death, ZANU PF will have to call for an extraordinary congress to elect a leader to take over from Mugabe both in ZANU and in the country (if he is still president which is most likely). In ZANU PF, provinces will sit down and nominate who they want as leader with the one getting the highest nominations out of the party’s 10 provinces becoming the first secretary and leader of ZANU PF. Naturally one would expect the vice –President of ZANU PF, Mai Mujuru, to take over if one is to apply the often conveniently punted “seniority” doctrine in ZANU PF. But it will not be that simple given that her faction has been involved in a serious asymmetric war of attrition against the other powerful Mnangagwa faction for the soul of ZANU PF
Therefore its obvious that the 2 factions will be at each other‘s throats. However, it must not be surprising if one or another faction also emerges for the demise of Mugabe will open floodgates of factionalism and narrow parochial interests. In my view, a likely interesting third factor will be the withdrawal of ex- ZAPU members back to the relaunched Dabengwa led ZAPU
But given the deep rooted mistrust and the limited time and the use of dirty money to buy votes in the run up to the extraordinary congress, in my view, the faction that will be able to muster the support of the security forces will emerge victorious.
As it stands now, it’s not very clear who has more support in the security forces between Mnangagwa and Mujuru factions. Given that Mnagagwa played a prominent role in DRC even though he was not Defence Minister at that time, his reported chairing of JOC in the run-up to the murderous 2008 runoff and his subsequent election as Minister of Defence, one may see him as a safe bet. The fact that one of his key strategists, Jonathan Moyo, who was hounded in the aftermaths of Tsholotsho was returned back into the party at central committee level and has acres of space in the Herald point out that Mnangagwa has an edge over Mujuru in the security forces support
However, it’s not a done deal for Mnangagwa because ZANU PF politics has never been divorced from tribal and ethnic factors since the formation of the party
The death of Chitepo in 1975 is widely known to have been a result of the power struggles between the Manyika and the Karanga factions of ZANU in 1975.The Vashandiri rebellion of 1977 in ZANU PF which was however ruthlessly crushed was also seen as an attempt by Karanga members of the former ZANU DARE who wanted to take over power after realising that although his surname at first sounded like Karanga, Mugabe was Zezuru. Although it’s not official, the death of Josiah Tongogara in 1979 is also seen as part of this power struggles between various tribal and ethnic factions in ZANU. Therefore in the struggle to take over from Mugabe, one can not rule out political assassinations especially given that the factions are now moneyed to sponsor such acts because of the rampant looting of Marange diamonds
Therefore, in my view, the fight for the control of ZANU PF post Mugabe will shift from ZANU PF provinces to the security forces who can either assassinate rivals of their preferred candidate or rig the congress in favour of their candidate through a campaign of fear and terror that will make 2008 June runoff a mere tea party
However, given this deep rooted factionalism in ZANU PF, can people honestly be convinced that the Zezuru heads of JOC bar only one, PV Sibanda, will say blood is thicker than water and give their allegiance to Mujuru faction instead of Mnangagwa at the crunch time? It’s quite possible and plausible but it will also depend on their interests. Given the alliances that has been forged around hard looting of the country’s resources like diamonds, interests might also get ahead of narrow village politics
The other issue that might arise, which will be very dangerous for Zimbabwe is the division among the security forces along the Mnangwagwa and Mujuru factions as well as the paramilitary forces like militia and War veterans. If this is to happen, the whole country will burn as a result of ZANU PF factional wars and such a scenario will make Rwanda and Somalia look as if they are a picnic
Another likely scenario is that if Mnangagwa wins through a brutal security forces marshalled campaign, its most likely that the Mujuru faction, aware that the Mashonaland provinces they control are the lifeblood of ZANU PF in terms of electoral votes, may take the campaign to the people by forming another ZANU PF faction that will stand for election knowing very well that they can get more votes than Mnangagwa if they can deliver all the Mashonaland provinces vote. If such a scenario is to happen, then any resultant general election that will also include the MDCs, ZAPU, Mavambo etc will be one of the most bloody and violent than ever witnessed in Zimbabwe
Therefore as it stands now, it’s likely that Mugabe is going to stand again for elections for presidency next year. Those who think that there won’t be national elections next year are day dreaming.Mugabe will use the same June 2008 runoff strategy of using the army. This time it will have devastating effects because of the resources galore due to the Marange diamonds. After emerging victorious, and to manipulate international pressure, he will then invite MDC or some few corruptible elements in the MDCs into an inclusive government under his own terms making them mere window dressers although they are likely to turn down such humiliation
After that then all the people of Zimbabwe will have to do is to look to the heavens and wait for the Lord to intervene and set another explosive phase in the history of Zimbabwe
Many people have been praying for Mugabe to manage the succession whilst he is alive so as to ensure his legacy, that of his young family and that of ZANU PF as a united party but to think that Mugabe can manage his own succession even when he is on his death bed is to expect too much. The old man would rather go down with the party and the country than seeing anyone take over from him in his lifetime
Therefore given the uncertainty and the realistic possibility of violence on a scale never seen before, it is in the interest of forces of reason in the 2 powerful ZANU PF factions to sit down and come out with a formula on how they can share power after Mugabe’s death. They can enter into the kind of agreement that Blair and Brown agreed with one going first and the other one going on later for the sake of peace in Zimbabwe
* Garikai Chimuka is a Zimbabwean Post Graduate Student based in the Netherlands. (garychimuka06@gmail.com)
